Scenario Planning Website

Tools and techniques
The Challenge Network (primarily operated by Oliver Sparrow for a network of consultants in strategy planning, so a commercial vehicle) describes scenario-based planning and gives several detailed scenarios. [Mark Smythe, Apr 07]. http://www.chforum.org/methods/scenario_methods.html

The NetMBA site provides a description of corporate strategic planning, with pointers to a brief description of PEST analysis and scenario planning [Kristy Biggins, Mar 07] http://www.netmba.com/strategy/scenario/

Shell (regarded as the incubator of this technique) has a site explaining scenarios and their use by Shell. [Abdul Latif, 6 Jun 02] http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC3=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/dir_scenarios_28022005.html&FC2=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/zzz_lhn.html

The Global Business Network (GBN) specializes in futures studies and runs many scenario based planning courses. The GBN was founded by the 'names' from Shell in this area, including Peter Schwartz. It has an active Australian branch (but no local Web site). [Geoffrey Dyke, 22 May 02] http://www.gbn.org/

Wired Magazine has a fairly detailed description of how to undertake scenario-based planning. [Geoffrey Dyke, 22 May 02] http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

Another overview of scenario based planning in business management is given by Jeurgen Daum, a German firm (?) interested in intangible asset management and other 'New Economy' issues. [Abdul Latif, 6 Jun 02] http://www.juergendaum.com/news/09_08_2001.htm

Martin Borjesson, a consultant in Sweden, offers his views on scenario planning, including links to Global Business Network and Shell (these firms appear all the time in the SBP literature). [Abdul Latif, 6 Jun 02] http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/

The Free Management Library is an exceptionally detailed site that gives extensive guidance on management, including strategic planning. The site is laid out well, with the information readily accessible, though much of it is geared around non-profit organisations. [EJL from Cathy Cheung, 15 Oct 00; JEL 12 Jan 01] http://www.managementhelp.org/plan_dec/str_plan/str_plan.htm

Criticisms of scenarios
Note Stein Wallace's (Molde University College, Norway) counter view of the use of scenario analysis in selecting alternatives. http://home.himolde.no/~wallace/scenarios.htm

Paul Treanor, of Holland, also criticizes senarios as being the reflection of elites and limiting choices—but note he has 'interesting' philisophical views upon many things. [Abdul Latif, 6 Jun 02] http://web.inter.nl.net/users/Paul.Treanor/few.futures.html

Use of scenario based planning in organizations
A useful description of how scenario based planning was used by a bank to examine options for re-structuring is given in an article in the Dec 99 issue of CIO magazine. [Geoffrey Dyke, 22 May 02] http://www.cio.com/archive/010100_stop.html